The News Editorial Analysis 30th Dec 2021

RBI puts question mark over economic recovery

The momentum gained by the economic recovery could be lost if Omicron cases surge and inflation remains high, the Reserve Bank of India warned on Wednesday.

Flagging challenges to the economy, RBI said the new Covid variant haunts the near-term prospects and the outlook is overcast with global risks. In the worst-case scenario, banks’ gross non-performing assets may jump from 6.9% in September 2021 to 9.5% by September 2022, it warned in the 24th issue of the Financial Stability Report, released on Wednesday.

“More recent high-frequency indicators of economic activity suggest some loss of momentum in the third quarter of 2021-22. The pace of the recovery remains uneven across sectors, inflation formation is being subjected to repetitive supply shocks and the outlook is overcast with global risks. Omicron haunts near-term prospects,” it added. 

The report underlines that inflation remains a major concern as commodity and food prices have remain elevated for a protracted period and has called for stronger supply-side measures to contain food and energy prices.

Among the major risks to economic growth are high commodity prices, domestic inflation, equity price volatility, asset quality deterioration, credit growth, and cyber disruptions.

In this context, on the domestic front, stronger and sustainable recovery hinges on the revival of private investment and shoring up private consumption, which still remains below their pre-pandemic levels, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said in his foreword to the report.

On public finance, the report said that even when the government manages to stick to its fiscal deficit target, the Centre’s gross borrowing is likely to remain elevated notwithstanding fiscal consolidation.

“Macro stress tests for credit risk indicate that the gross non-performing asset ratio of SCBs (scheduled commercial banks) may increase from 6.9% in September 2021 to 8.1% by September 2022 under the baseline scenario and to 9.5% under a severe stress scenario,” the report noted. 

At the same time, the report said the strong balance sheets of banks with higher capital and liquidity buffers will help mitigate future shocks.

The Great Penance: Is it Arjuna or Bhagiratha?

The famous Great Penance open-air bas-relief at Mamallapuram, Tamil Nadu, also known as Arjuna’s Tapas or Ganga’s Descent, requires no introduction. This panel, 30 metres long and 12 metres high, contains more than 150 figures comprising the Gods, superhumans, humans, animals, serpents and birds. Mamallapuram has gathered the attention of explorers, archeologists, historians and general visitors for the past two millenniums, so much so that two annotated bibliographies have been published so far, one in 1966 and another in 1980. I may not be wrong that the time is apt for another bibliography as numerous articles and books have appeared since 1980. The first detailed account of the site and its monuments was published in 1788 by William Chambers. He mentions that the figures on the Great Penance panel represent the actions of the Pandavas as celebrated in the Mahabharata. The first Indian scholar account was from Lakshmayya Kavali, an assistant of Col Mackenzie in 1803. Kavali said the panel represents the tapasya (penance) of Arjuna to obtain Pashupatastra from Shiva. In 1911, J Ph Vogel proposed a different reading, saying the central cleft on the rock was the focal point of the sculpture. Taking this cue, Dubreuil and Goloubew in 1914 proposed a new identification for the panel. They explained that it represents the tapasya of Bhagiratha to get Ganga from the heavens down to the Earth. Since then, the scholar community is divided between these two themes. Michael Rabe mentions coming across 43 publications favouring Bhagiratha, 39 favouring Arjuna, and 25 either maintaining neutrality or offering another alternative. These two legends, Arjuna’s quest for Pashupatastra and Bhagiratha’s feat for bringing Ganga to the Earth, are found in the Mahabharata. The local traditions were vocal about the influence of the Mahabharata over the sculpture since the earliest accounts of the site and there might be valid reasons for the same. However, is there a piece of clinching evidence that can tilt the balance towards one theme? Probably yes, and I want to discuss one such piece of evidence that may have a significant bearing on the identification of the panel.

To the left of the tallest elephant is a sculpture depicting a cat standing on her feet with her hands raised above in austerity. Around her are gathered several mice paying homage. According to the Udyoga Parva of the Mahabharata, Duryodhana sent Uluka as his messenger to ask Yudhishthira how he could be called righteous when he, with his brothers, was wishing for the destruction of this world through the war instead of being a dispeller of fear for all creatures. A person whose standard of righteousness is always up but whose sins are always concealed behaves similar to the hypocrite cat who once took her abode on the banks of Ganga with her hands upraised, pretending to practice virtue only to deceive her mice followers. 

What is the purpose of this sculpture in the overall scheme of this panel? The placement of this sculpture plays an important role. To its diagonal opposite is the sculpture showing a man doing tapasya to Shiva. This man represents Arjuna in his quest for the Pashupatastra. To the left, opposite to the cat, is the sculpture showing four men practicing austerities in an ashrama. These four men represent the rest of the Pandava brothers doing austerities during their 12-year sojourn when they visited various tirthas and stayed at different ashramas. The Pallava artists masterfully placed these opposite themes, one of violence through obtaining weapons and another of peace through austerities, in a vertical alignment and connected both to the hypocrite cat sculpture. Duryodhana believed that the Pandavas were responsible for the great war and cannot claim to be righteous. Their behaviour is the same as that of the hypocrite cat. It connects well with the memories and traditions of the locals where they remembered the theme of the panel as Arjuna’s tapasya. But why did the Pallava artists conceive the panel in such a manner? This sculpture is a pun on the common understanding of the Mahabharata where the Pandavas were righteous and the Kauravas were the wrongdoers. This common understanding is perfectly justified; however, the sculpture presents the perspective from Duryodhana’s side, where the latter believed he was righteous and the Pandavas wrong. Puns, riddles and conundrums were very much in vogue in that time period, especially during the reign of the Pallava king Mahendravarman I (580–630 CE). The king himself authored two Sanskrit farce plays, Mattavilasa Prahasana and Bhagavadajjuka. The sculpture of Shiva-Gangadhara in the Tiruchirappalli cave temple of Mahendravarman I is one of the best examples of multivalence and its associated inscription includes various puns on the overall theme. Does it suggest that this Great Penance panel at Mamallapuram is influenced or designed, at least in part if not fully, by Mahendravarman I? It is quite possible and future research may bring in fresh perspectives in this direction.

COVID-19 cases in India start to inch up as Omicron takes over

The number of COVID-19 infections in India is on an increasing trend. After consistently declining since mid-May, the average number of cases showed a bump again in the last week of December.

On December 29, 13,187 cases were recorded, a 76.6% increase from the number of infections a week ago. Data for some States — Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Tripura and smaller Union Territories — were not included on Wednesday.

While Kerala continued to contribute the most number of cases, infections in all districts of the State are decreasing. On the other hand, infections are surging in other States’ urban centres such as Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Ahmedabad and Delhi.

Mumbai recorded 2,510 cases on Wednesday, an 80% increase from the figure of the previous day, and a 400% rise from a week ago. Delhi recorded 923 cases, a 600% rise from a week ago. Bengaluru recorded 400 infections, a 90% increase from last week’s figure. Chennai recorded 294 cases, a 100% increase.Mumbai contributed more than15% of the country’s cases on Wednesday — the highest among all cities — followed by Delhi, which formed about 5% of the infections.

The recent rise in infections is due to the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. According to data from GISAID, an open-access portal for genomic data on viruses, Omicron has become the dominating variant in India. In the last few days of December, the Omicron variant was found in about 60% of the samples sequenced in India.

Initial reports from other countries showed that the Omicron wave is more infectious than the Delta wave and infects more people in a shorter span. However, hospitalisations and ICU admissions are relatively lower compared with the previous waves, especially among the vaccinated.

As of Wednesday, India has fully vaccinated 63% of its adults and partially vaccinated 89%, leaving a considerable share of the population vulnerable.

Centre may extend FCRA renewal date

The Union Home Ministry is likely to extend the December 31 deadline for non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and associations registered under the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act (FCRA) to apply for renewal.

The registrations of thousands of NGOs and associations that were up for renewal in October 2020 are stuck. The registrations are renewed every five years.

A senior government official said only around 5,000 renewal applications have been processed so far. There are 22,762 NGOs registered under the FCRA in the country. It is mandatory to register under the Act to receive foreign funds or donations.

Due to the pandemic and the amendments to the Act in 2020 that introduced stringent compliance measures, many NGOs could not complete the process.

Haridwar’s hubris of hate must be stopped

A manic irrationality is being seeded in Indian society, with hate-filled words having an impact on the rights of all

Between December 17 and 19, 2021, a militant Hindu religious assembly was held at Haridwar, Uttarakhand where speakers amplified targeted hate messages. Organised by Yati Narsinghanand Saraswati, the head priest of the Dasna Devi temple and a high-ranking officer of the Juna Akhara (a sect of Hindu seers), the assembly had many speakers who raised the bogey of an Islamic threat to India and Hindus.

Carnival of hate

Swami Prabodhanand Giri, president of the Hindu Raksha Sena, a right-wing organisation, said, “… you have seen this at the Delhi border, they killed Hindus and hung them. There is no more time, the case now is that either you prepare to die now, or get ready to kill, there’s no other way. This is why, like in Myanmar, the police here, the politicians here, the army and every Hindu must pick up weapons and we will have to conduct this cleanliness drive. There is no solution apart from this.” Yati Narsinghanand, a repeat hate-speech offender, also offered ₹1 crore to any youth who would rise up to be a “Hindu Prabhakaran” (a reference to the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam), in a clear incitement to violent behaviour. Swami Darshan Bharti, a proponent of the Hindu right, again called for restrictions on the buying of land by Muslims in Uttarakhand.

I do not want to further amplify the hateful words that were spoken in that carnival of hate at Haridwar. I will instead offer some trajectories of thought. How should we be thinking about these events and processes?

Mass indoctrination

First, let us recognise that there is a manic irrationality that is being carefully seeded in Indian society today and that hate-filled words have an impact on the rights and well-being of all. This process involves consistent and repetitive hate speech and fear speech against minority groups by Hindutva ideologues, which is resulting in a mass cult-like indoctrination aimed at making Hindus believe that they are under immediate threat by those that are not exactly like them. In doing so, a non-existent and unverified threat is manufactured and presented. The speakers at the Haridwar event, between their speeches, painted a picture of an India which is under threat of being taken over by Islamists, and therefore they reasoned, all Muslims must be treated with hate and suspicion. Then the purveyors of this hate speech offered a solution — Hindus must take up weapons against all Muslims in acts of self-preservation. What they effectively outlined for the followers is a fictitious reason for genocide followed by a call to engage in the genocide of Muslims.

Second, we need to think about why in India it has been so difficult to isolate and prosecute hate speech even when it so clearly, dangerously and imminently asks for the weaponisation of the majority and the murder of Muslims. Why do Indian policy-makers still not clearly recognise the extent to which hate-filled narratives lead to actual events that involve a loss of lives, injury to people, loss of dignity and the stripping away of rights of targeted groups?

No distinction

In India we do not make a distinction between hate speech and fear speech. Hate speech (speech that expresses threats, abuse, violence and prejudice) against any community works most effectively when the public sphere has first been saturated with fear speech. Fear speech expresses unknown and unverifiable threats that create a sense of anxiety and panic in individuals. It is purposefully vague. A classic example is the spread of the “satanic panic” in the United States in the 1980s, where the bogey of satanic cults committing ritual child abuse led to deep and widespread public fear.

In India, when Hindutva ideologues tell Hindus that they are under threat by Muslim others, the ideologues are creating mass fear and panic. Every time they re-articulate a trauma inflicted on the Hindu community in the past, they are mobilising an emotion of eternal hurt combined with presenting a targeted group in a negative stereotype. This has special purchase on people when societies are undergoing conditions of economic, social and political inequality and uncertainty. What such speech also encourages someone to do is simple — pick a side. Being in the middle of debates is no longer an option.

Third, what we have been witnessing in India is the sustained escalation of hate speech and fear speech towards an end goal which involves the violent expulsion of Muslims from the Indian body politic. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to coalesce an electorally beneficial Hindu identity around itself and over time it has blessed the rise of extreme Hindu leaders, thereby creating incentives for other such militant religious careerists, many of whom were in attendance in Haridwar. All of them followed the communal formula that can benefit them, and the BJP, politically.

A transformation and support

Fourth, in over a century, Hindutva ideology has progressed from a loose-cluster of fringe organisations to a sustained grass-roots political movement that has electorally managed to capture state institutions. This capture is important. This is why Swami Prabodhanand Giri can confidently talk about enlisting the police and army in a safai abhiyaan (cleanliness drive). The attendees know that they have the support of the ruling party and its institutions. They are almost sure that they can beat prosecution under existing laws that criminalise hate speech. They also instinctively understand through repeat experimentation that hate speech can lead to violence by their followers against targeted groups and that fear speech can diminish the barriers to people engaging in violence.

Fifth, the display at Haridwar that was attended by at least two functionaries of the BJP, Ashwini Upadhyay and Udita Tyagi of the BJP’s Mahila Morcha, was in direct contravention of the rights of citizens that are clearly worded in the Indian Constitution. Speakers threatened of an 1857-style mutiny against Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh (sedition), incitement to arms and violence.

One speaker, Sindhu Sagar Swami, even bragged about entrapping 10 Muslims in fake cases under the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. All of these are offences under various sections of the Indian Penal Code.

Set in 2014

Finally, let us also acknowledge that the Haridwar hate conference has occurred in the broader context of the escalation of attacks on minority groups, attacks on churches and mosques and the disruption of prayers. The manner and tone for such events to occur was set in 2014. What is becoming clear is that the current Indian state seeks to turn common Hindu citizens into enforcers of its majoritarian vision at the neighbourhood level. The self-styled godmen at Haridwar are the facilitators of this process, allowing the BJP just the right amount of distance to allow for plausible deniability in domestic and international fora. This is most certainly a dangerous path for India because mass political and social radicalisation does not come with power-steering. Those in power would be well advised to start making the moves to check this growing radicalisation as effectively as they seem to move to check the fictitious anti-national activities of their fictitious domestic enemies.

Vasundhara Sirnate Drennan is a political scientist and journalist. She is also the creator of the India Violence Archive, a citizen’s data initiative aimed at recording collective public violence in India.

Far from over

Israel is again violating international norms and laws with repeated strikes against Syria

The missile strike at Syria’s Latakia port on Tuesday is yet another reminder that the conflict in the Arab country is far from over. This is the second strike on Latakia, one of the busiest ports in Syria, within weeks, and Damascus has blamed Israel on both occasions. The Israeli authorities have neither confirmed nor rejected the accusations, but it is a fact that Israel has carried out air and missile attacks inside Syria in recent years. After the strike on Latakia in early December, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said, “We are pushing back on the bad forces of the region day and night.” The multi-faceted Syrian crisis has evolved over the years. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with help from Russia and Iran, has defeated most of the rebel groups and recaptured almost all lost territories, except Idlib. But Mr. Assad’s apparent victory did not end the conflict. When Iran, which supplied men and weapons to Mr. Assad, built up its influence in the country, Israel, which has been occupying Syria’s Golan Heights for decades, viewed it as a security threat. Russia, whose primary focus in Syria is on the survival of the Assad regime and the protection of its own troops and assets deployed there, has largely stayed away from the Iran-Israel cold war. This gives Israel a free hand in Syria to target the Iranian and Hezbollah shipments.

The Israeli approach, however, has two key problems. One, the repeated strikes are a flagrant violation of Syria’s sovereignty. Israel, which has hardly upheld international norms and laws when it comes to its security policies, is setting another bad precedent. Second, Syria, devastated by the civil war, is emerging as a new front in the Israel-Iran tussle. In recent years, Israel has reportedly carried out sabotage activities inside Iran and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists. Iran, in return, has attacked Israel-linked vessels in the Gulf and Mediterranean waters and enhanced supplies to Shia rebel groups in the region. The Latakia strike has come at a time when international powers are trying to revive the Iran nuclear deal, post-2018. If these attempts collapse and Iran presses ahead with its nuclear programme, the chances of an Israel-Iran military conflict will soar. Israel has already said that all options are on the table to “prevent” Iran from going nuclear. So, Syria appears to a pawn in this game between the big powers of West Asia. Enfeebled by the civil war and dependent on Iran and Russia for survival, Damascus lacks the political will and resources to either check Iran’s influence or deter Israel’s attack. For Syria to see relative peace, there has to be a dial-down in tensions between Israel and Iran. A good beginning point would be the revival of the nuclear deal.

A whiff of trouble in the Nord Stream pipeline

What was meant to be an ordinary energy project from Russia to Germany is now a powerful geopolitical tool.

It would be considered an ordinary gas pipeline were it not for the controversial nature of the project. Called the Nord Stream 2, it will spell a direct supply of natural gas under the Baltic Sea from the Russian city of Ust-Luga to the German city of Lubmin, avoiding transit through Ukraine and other European countries. However, the Ukrainian authority has called the project a ‘dangerous geopolitical weapon’. There is also strong opposition from the United States and most of the European countries (except for Austria, Germany, Hungary and the Netherlands). Their concern is that, once operational, the project would render more leverage and bargaining power to Russia while dealing with Europe and its energy market.

Some political commentators share the view that Russia is trying to use Nord Stream 2 as a political weapon to put pressure on European security and ‘undermine the democratic resilience of European institutions’. At the same time, during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed these concerns, saying that ‘Nordstream 2 is purely a commercial project, which is shorter, cheaper, and economically more viable, compared to the gas transit through multiple European countries’. Mr. Putin even went as far as calling opposing views as ‘foolish propaganda’.

Mounting complexities

The construction of Nord Stream 2 began in 2015, when Russia’s main energy company Gazprom took ownership of the project’s operator, the Switzerland-based company Nord Stream 2 AG. The project was expected to double the capacity of the existing pipeline, Nord Stream 1, that had been operational around 2011-12. The estimated costs are around €11 billion, with the new pipeline stretching for 1,225 kilometres.

Throughout its short history, the project has undergone a series of sanctions and controversies, morphing itself into the source of contention and political battleground. At the end of 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump had signed a law that imposed sanctions on any EU company that was involved in completing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The Trump administration feared that the pipeline would give Russia more influence over Europe’s energy supply and reduce its own share of the lucrative European market for American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Many European politicians, including then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, were opposed to the ‘extraterritorial sanctions’, stating that they were able to decide their own energy policies without an ‘interference in autonomous decisions taken in Europe’.

In July 2021, the U.S. and Germany reached an agreement to allow completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Besides, the agreement aimed to invest more than €200 million in energy security in Ukraine, as well as sustainable energy across Europe, according to media reports. Earlier in May 2021, the Joe Biden administration decided to issue a national security waiver for the Nord Stream 2 AG, the major company involved in the construction of the pipeline. The main reason was apparently to restore trust and close cooperation between the U.S. and Germany.

Energy security dilemma

According to data from 2015, Germany imported about 40% of natural gas from Russia, 29% from the Netherlands, 34% from Norway, with only around 10% from Germany’s own gas fields. According to a media report, about a quarter of Germany’s electricity now comes from coal, about another quarter from renewables, 16% from natural gas and around 11% from nuclear energy.

The dispute over Nord Stream 2 takes place at a time when Germany has set out a plan to shut down its nuclear and coal power plants, with an objective of gradually moving towards renewable sources of energy. In order to fill the supply gap and diversify the sources, the country plans to build its first LNG terminal to receive gas from Qatar, the U.S., and others.

This winter, Europe is facing a ‘perfect storm’ in its energy market, whereby wholesale energy prices have more than doubled in 2021, and there is a limited supply of fossil fuels altogether. Russia is blamed for an intentional decrease in gas supplies to Europe, aiming to speed up the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by European Union (EU) market regulators. There is a ‘silver lining’ in the current energy crisis in Europe though, since it could provide additional incentives for green energy investments and production of green hydrogen.

Latest developments

In November this year, Germany’s network regulator (Bundesnetzagentur) suspended the certification procedure for Nord Stream 2. In an official statement it said: ‘it would only be possible to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, if that operator was organised in a legal form under German law.’ For practical reasons, Nord Stream 2 AG decided not to undergo a complete legal transformation, but establish a subsidiary under German law that would manage only the German part of the pipeline. The involved bureaucracy inevitably means further delays in project commencement as it requires re-submission of paperwork and a renewed certification process. In December, Germany’s energy regulator said it would not make a decision on certifying Nord Stream 2 until, at least, the second half of 2022.

Meanwhile, tensions have been growing between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, amidst fears of Russia’s invasion into Ukrainian territories and a replication of 2014 scenario. The new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has inherited the Nord Stream 2 dilemma from his predecessor and will have to make difficult choices going forward. Some EU leaders have called for stronger actions toward the controversial pipeline from the government in Berlin, including its possible termination in the event of further military escalation.

Thus, what was meant to be an ordinary energy project has transformed itself into a powerful geopolitical tool, available to every stakeholder involved, and even beyond.

The efficiency myth of Aadhaar linking

The Union Government hastily passed a Bill to link voter IDs with Aadhaar cards. Such arbitrary approaches without sufficient deliberation have become the norm, it seems. The Government claims that the move will prevent frauds and remove duplicate IDs. But as evidenced by a report by journalist Kumar Sambhav, such a move violates an individual’s Right to Privacy, enables voter profiling and excludes genuine voters — perils that have also been outlined in a statement issued by the Rethink Aadhaar campaign and endorsed by many organisations. Aadhaar was, among other things, purportedly meant to improve efficiency in welfare programmes. However, there are important lessons to learn from the dubious claims made by the Government in Aadhaar linking for welfare delivery which have a strong bearing on the new proposal.

Claims on shaky ground

Cash transfers in many welfare programmes, such as payment of MGNREGA wages, are done using the Aadhaar Payment Bridge System (APBS). For this to work, it is mandatory to link workers’ Aadhaar with their MGNREGA job cards and their bank accounts where the Aadhaar number of the worker becomes their financial address. The Union Government has repeatedly made claims on savings in welfare programmes due to Aadhaar. These have been methodically debunked by Jean Drèze and Reetika Khera, among others. But the Government continues claiming that “the estimated cumulative savings/benefits due to Aadhaar in MGNREGA till March, 2021 is Rs 33,475 crores.” Two Right to Information responses seeking the methodology used to arrive at such savings are relevant. In a recent response, the Government said the “Ministry has been reporting DBT Mission on the estimated DBT savings under the scheme on the assumption that 10% of the wages in the year could be saved.” In an earlier response, it had said: “Savings are in terms of increasing the efficiency and reducing the delay in payments etc.” The savings due to Aadhaar, therefore, appear to be an “assumption” while the other claims are also on shaky grounds.

Wage payment delays in MGNREGA have been persistent. An analysis of more than 18 lakh wage invoices for the first half of 2021-22 by LibTech India demonstrated that 71% of the payments were delayed (called stage 2 delays) beyond the mandated period by the Union Government. Nearly 7 lakh invoices in our sample were done through the APBS; 11.65 lakh were account-based payments where the workers’ name, account number, and the IFSC code of their bank were used to transfer money. Figure 1 compares the time taken by the Union Government (stage 2) in transferring wages for the two payment methods. The axes represent the number of days taken for two kinds of payments. The 45-degree line shows the percentiles of stage 2 for APBS and the dots represent the percentiles of stage 2 for account-based payments. When dots are below the line, the account-based payments are quicker. Barring a few cases, the dots are practically on or below the line. This is perhaps the first large sample empirical evidence demonstrating that the Government’s claim of Aadhaar having “reduced payment delays” is unfounded. Indeed, there is nothing inherent in the APBS that makes transfers faster.

The government’s claims on “increasing the efficiency” is also questionable. Efficiency for whom and how is such efficiency related to accountability? Between 2015 and 2019, there was intense pressure on field-level bureaucrats to increase Aadhaar linking. A recently completed study of nearly 3,000 MGNREGA workers by Anjor Bhaskar and Preeti Singh shows that 57% of job cards of genuine workers were deleted in a quest to show 100% linking of Aadhaar with job cards. Doing such plastic surgery on numbers to show efficiency gains is unethical and sets a harmful precedent.

Another key concern is the opacity surrounding APBS and the consequent dilution of accountability. Cash transfers through both the payment methods can fail. The most common reason for payment failures in account-based payments is when the account number of the worker in the system is incorrect. This can be rectified at the block. However, the most common reason for payment failures through the APBS is enigmatically called “Inactive Aadhaar.” This has nothing to do with an individual’s Aadhaar being inactive but happens when there is a software mapping failure with the centralised National Payments Corporation of India, the clearing house for APBS. Workers and officials alike are clueless on resolving these payment failures.

Moreover, there are several cases of misdirected payments in APBS when the Aadhaar number of one person gets linked to somebody else’s bank account so her money gets credited to somebody else’s account. These are very hard to detect as these will appear as successful transactions on the dashboard. As per UIDAI, its functions include “setting up of facilitation centres and grievance redressal mechanism for redressal for grievances of individuals.” However, no such mechanisms exist.

Beyond technological alibis

So, on at least three counts — timely payment of wages, efficiency gains and grievance resolution — there appears no basis to justify APBS in MGNREGA. These prompt us to move beyond technological alibis for good governance and emphasise the need for a push towards constitutional propriety and accountability for technologies. The mathematician Cathy O’Neil cautions us on how some algorithmic models and technologies for social policies can be at odds with fairness. She writes: “Fairness is squishy and hard to quantify. It is a concept. And computers for all their advances in language and logic still struggle with concepts… Programmers don’t know how to code for it…” Indeed, compromising on fairness, people were coerced into using Aadhaar which had no pilot or independent cost-benefit analysis. No feedback has been collected on the user experience of the recipients or from field-level bureaucrats. Further, it is time to overhaul the nomenclature for recipients of welfare measures. Calling them “beneficiaries” subtly transforms the state from being an institution meant to uphold constitutional rights to sounding more like a charitable institution. Instead, people should be referred to as “rights holders”. This will likely help us better interrogate whether technologies have imbibed democratic principles of transparency, accountability and participation.

When Aadhaar’s use in welfare — for which it was purportedly intended — is itself shrouded in opacity, unreliability, and exclusions, we must be very worried if it is linked to voter IDs as it will further hollow out government accountability. It will fundamentally alter the citizen-State relationship. This must concern everyone as thousands of crores of taxpayers’ money have been spent on it. The Law Minister said that linking Aadhaar with voter id is “voluntary”. But given the prior experience of Aadhaar in other spheres, this will be another example of what Cathy O’Neil refers to as the “authority of the inscrutable.”

More defence systems to be locally manufactured

Following the two indigenous manufacturing lists barring import of 209 major platforms and systems, the Defence Ministry on Wednesday notified a list of 2,500 subsystems and components that have been localised and another 351 imported items to be so substituted in the next three years.

“This ‘Aatmanirbhar’ initiative will save foreign exchange approximately equivalent to ₹3,000 crore every year,” a Ministry statement said.

A positive indigenisation list of subsystems and components had been notified by the Department of Defence Production as part of the Ministry’s efforts to achieve self-reliance in manufacturing and minimise imports by the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on social media. They would only be procured from Indian industry after the timelines indicated in the list. “DPSUs will work in close coordination with local industrial supply chain to ensure strict adherence to the stipulated timelines,” the office memorandum said. Necessary certifications and approval of all items included in the list shall be granted on priority by stakeholders concerned, it added.

The positive indigenisation list is among a series of measures announced recently to reduce defence imports and give a push to domestic manufacturing. Speaking at a recent event, Mr. Singh said that in this decade, the Ministry would increase the items under the positive list for indigenisation from current 209 to over 1,000. At present, India’s defence and aerospace manufacturing market was worth ₹85,000 crore, of which the contribution of the private sector was ₹18,000 crore.

In 2022, the country’s defence and aerospace manufacturing market would increase to ₹1 lakh crore and could reach ₹5 lakh crore by 2047. The Ministry is also expected to put out the final version of the Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy (DPEPP) 2020, the draft of which has been released for public feedback.

In a separate development, the Army said it had established a quantum lab at the Military College of Telecommunication Engineering in MP, to lead research and training with support from the National Security Council Secretariat as part of focus on emerging technology domains.

WHO warns of COVID ‘tsunami’ overwhelming health systems.

A “tsunami” of Omicron and Delta COVID-19 cases will pile pressure on health systems already being stretched to their limits, the World Health Organization warned on Wednesday.

The WHO said the Delta and Omicron variants of concern were “twin threats” that were driving new case numbers to record highs, leading to spikes in hospitalisations and deaths.

The WHO said new global cases had risen by 11% last week, while the United States and France both registered record daily case numbers on Wednesday.

“I am highly concerned that Omicron, being more transmissible, circulating at the same time as Delta, is leading to a tsunami of cases,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference.

“This is and will continue to put immense pressure on exhausted health workers, and health systems on the brink of collapse.”

He said the pressure on health systems was not only due to new coronavirus patients, but also large numbers of health workers falling ill with COVID.

‘Moral shame’

The WHO wanted 40% of the population in every country fully vaccinated by the end of the year and has a target of 70% coverage by the middle of 2022. Mr. Tedros announced that 92 of the WHO’s 194 member states were going to miss the 40% target.

Mr. Tedros slammed the attitude of richer countries accusing them of hogging the weapons to combat COVID-19 — and leaving the back door open for the virus.

“Populism, narrow nationalism and hoarding of health tools, including masks, therapeutics, diagnostics and vaccines, by a small number of countries, undermined equity, and created the ideal conditions for the emergence of new variants,” he said.

Meanwhile, disinformation had been a constant distraction in 2021, hampering efforts to beat the viral pandemic.

The News Editorial Analysis 29th Dec 2021