The News Editorial Analysis 1st December 2021

GDP grew 8.4% in Q2, but recovery appears patchy

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 8.4% in the July to September quarter, compared to a 7.4% contraction a year ago, with the economy’s gross value added(GVA) rising 8.5%, the National Statistical Office said on Tuesday.

Factoring in the first quarter GDP growth of 20.1%, the first half of this year has recorded 13.7% growth and India is likely to record double digit growth for 2021-22 as a whole, the Finance Ministry’s Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian said, seeking to emphasise that the recovery process is continuing to play out.Economists, however, were not fully convinced about the extent and durability of this recovery and reacted with caution.

Though the absolute GDP in the second quarter (Q2) was 0.3% higher than pre-pandemic levels, there were still many worrying areas, particularly the insipid private consumption spending that still languished below pre-COVID levels along with activity in employment-intensive sectors like construction and contact-intensive sectors like retail and hotels.The base effect of negative growth last year also helped nudge the GDP numbers up, most independent economists say, although the CEA said the base effect by itself does not make the recovery ‘less noteworthy’.

Crisil chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi said investments, largely from the Government, continued to remain the key growth drivers while private consumption is yet to show a decisive recovery.“On the domestic demand side, only gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) emerged positive in Q2 over the 2019-20 level,” noted D.K. Srivastava, chief policy adviser at EY India.

“Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), in terms of its magnitude, was still lower,” he said.

“Even if the pace of recovery is sustained in the next two quarters, India’s GDP for the year is expected to be only marginally higher than that in 2019-20 (by around 2%),” CARE Ratings’ economists Madan Sabnavis and Kavita Chacko said in a note, retaining their GDP growth forecast for the year at 9.1%.

“Demand and investments are yet to see a meaningful and durable pick-up. Improvements in these are expected to be limited and gradual given that even before the pandemic, the domestic economy was grappling with low demand and subdued investment climate,” they said, adding that fresh domestic and external challenges and uncertainties abound, including inflation and new variants of the COVID virus.

Among key sectors, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing was one of the sectors doing the heavy lifting for growth, with GVA rising 4.5% in Q2, the same level as the previous quarter and stronger than the 3% recorded in Q2 of 2020-21.

Public Administration, Defence & Other Services recorded the highest GVA growth among different segments of the economy at 17.4%, followed by Mining and Quarrying that grew 15.4% and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services that rose 8.9%.

Manufacturing GVA grew by a moderate 5.5% compared to a 1.5% contraction in the second quarter last year. The manufacturing sector value-added had grown by 49.6% in Q1 of this year, compared to a 36% drop in the first quarter of the COVID-affected previous year.

The employment-intensive sectors — Construction and Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting — recorded a GVA uptick of 7.5% and 8.2%, respectively, compared to negative growth rates of 7.2% and 16%, in Q2 of last year.

While the growth prints were higher than expected for ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar, she said the disaggregated data does not convey meaningful signals of a durable recovery, especially with private final consumption expenditure continuing to trail the pre-COVID level.“The growth of manufacturing, construction and trade, hotels etc. trailed our forecasts, suggesting that rising input costs bit corporate margins, and contact-intensive services continued to trail the pre-COVID levels,” she said.

GVA from the Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services sectors rose 7.8% in Q2 from a 9.1% contraction last year and a modest 3.7% growth in Q1 of this year, but still remained below the pre-pandemic level of 2019-20.Mr. Srivastava termed the pick-up in investment as a positive signal, but noted that private consumption demand would pick up as employment and incomes grow in small and medium sectors which,in turn are linked to the recovery in the services sectors especially the trade and hotels.The CARE Ratings economists pointed out that the high difference of over 9% between GDP in nominaland real terms, indicates rising inflation pressures.Mr. Srivastava termed the pick-up in investment as a positive signal, but noted that private consumption demand would pick up as employment and incomes grow in small and medium sectors which, in turn, are linked to the recovery in the services sectors

especially the trade and hotels.

Omicron variant doesn’t escape RTPCR, RAT, says Health Ministry

COVID-19 variant Omicron doesn’t escape RTPCR (reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction) testd Rapid Antigen Test (RAT), the Union Health Ministry said on Tuesday. It instructed the States to ramp up testing for prompt and early identification of any cases.

“States are advised for target/prioritized testing of passengers from the not “at-risk” countries also as part of the ramped up testing by the states,” says a Ministry release.

The instructions followed Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan’s virtual meeting with the States/UTs to review COVID-19 public health response measures and preparedness amid reports of Omicron cases across various countries.The Ministry pointed to the critical role of vaccination as a powerful defence against COVID-19, the extension of the “Har Ghar Dastak” campaign till December 31 with focus on 100% first dose coverage, and the completion of backlog of second dose. The States have been advised to ramp up the pace and coverage of vaccination.The meeting was attended by Dr. V.K. Paul, Member (Health), NITI Aayog; Rajiv Bansal, Secretary, MoCA; Dr. Balram Bhargava, Secretary (Health Research) & DG, ICMR; Dr. Sujeet K. Singh, Director, NCDC; State Health Secretaries; MDs (NHM); representatives from the Ministry of External Affairs and the Bureau of Immigration (BOI); State Airport Public Health Officials (APHOs); and other officials from the States/UTs.At the meeting, Mr. Bhushan stressed the continued need for further vaccination coverage, adherence to COVID-19 appropriate behavior and need to avoid mass gatherings.The States have also been advised not to let the guard down, and keep a strict vigil on the international passengers coming to the country through various airports, ports and land border crossings.The Ministry said testing of samples of travellers coming from “at risk” countries on the first day and of specified category of passengers on the eighth day needed to be scrupulously done. Passengers from “at risk” countries were being advised to prepare to wait at the airports till the RT-PCR test report is available. Also all samples for genome sequencing have to be sent to INSACOG labs (mapped with the States) promptly. The States to undertake contact tracing of positive individuals and follow-up for 14 days.

While asking states to ensure preparedness of health infrastructure (availability of ICU, O2 beds, ventilators, etc.) the Ministry said that they should also focus on rural areas and paediatric cases. The Ministry added that there should be continued monitoring of areas where recent cluster of positive cases have emerged.“Effective and regular monitoring of home isolation cases, with physical visits to homes of passengers from “at-risk” countries is a must,” said the release.Dr Vinod Paul stated that the country is richer in its knowledge of management of COVID19. He underlined the continued importance of COVID appropriate behavior, avoiding large gatherings and ramping up vaccination.

Govt. to crack down on vaccine hesitancy

The State Government cannot give free COVID-19 treatment to those who do not cooperate with the State’s prevention and containment activities, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has said.At the COVID-19 review meeting held here on Tuesday, he said the Government would not be obliged to pick up the tab for the treatment of unvaccinated individuals who become COVID positive.He insisted that those who are remaining unvaccinated at present citing reasons such as serious diseases or allergies should be able to produce a medical certificate issued by a Government doctor.Among teachers who are unvaccinated, those who are unable to take the vaccine because of any medical issues, will have to produce a medical certificate issued by a Government doctor. Others should take the vaccine or be prepared to do RT-PCR tests every week and submit the results. These stringent measures have become necessary for the protection of children and college students, he said.The same conditions will be applicable to those unvaccinated individuals who are working in offices and other public places. Mr. Vijayan directed that the vigil against the new virus variant, Omicron be stepped up and that surveillance be strengthened in airports. All COVID protocols should be followed strictly.He directed that the representatives of local bodies take the lead in finding those who were remaining unvaccinated. He directed that a special campaign be held from December 1-15 to complete the vaccination.Mr. Vijayan said that differently abled children would soon be given permission to go to school. It has been decided not to extend the current school hours. The meeting decided not to allow any more relaxations in civil life in the light of the emerging situation involving COVID.

Govt. to crack down on vaccine hesitancy

Unvaccinated teachers will have to produce medical certificate from govt. doctor

Small grant but a big opportunity for local bodies

In early November 2021, a potentially game-changing and transformative development went by, almost unnoticed — the release of ₹8,453.92 crore to 19 States, as a health grant to rural and urban local bodies (ULBs), by the Department of Expenditure, the Ministry of Finance. This allocation has been made as part of the health grant of ₹70,051 crore which is to be released over five years, from FY2021-22 to FY2025-26, as recommended by the Fifteenth Finance Commission. The grant is earmarked to plug identified gaps in the primary health-care infrastructure in rural and urban settings. Of the total ₹13,192 crore to be allocated in FY 2021-22, rural local bodies (RLBs) and ULBs will receive ₹8,273 crore and ₹4,919 crore, respectively.

First, the grant should be used as an opportunity to sensitise key stakeholders in local bodies, including the elected representatives (councillors and Panchayati raj institution representatives) and the administrators, on the role and responsibilities in the delivery of primary care and public health services. Second, awareness of citizens about the responsibilities of local bodies in health-care services should be raised. Such an approach can work as an empowering tool to enable accountability in the system. Third, civil society organisations need to play a greater role in raising awareness about the role of LBs in health, and possibly in developing local dashboards (as an mechanism of accountability) to track the progress made in health initiatives. Fourth, the Fifteenth Finance Commission health grants should not be treated as a ‘replacement’ for health spending by the local bodies, which should alongside increase their own health spending regularly to make a meaningful impact. Fifth, mechanisms for better coordination among multiple agencies working in rural and urban areas should be institutionalised. Time-bound and coordinated action plans with measurable indicators and road maps need to be developed. Sixth, local bodies remain ‘health greenfield’ areas. The young administrators in charge of such RLBs and ULBs and the motivated councillors and Panchayati raj institution members need to grab this opportunity to develop innovative health models. Seventh, before the novel coronavirus pandemic started, a number of State governments and cities had planned to open various types of community clinics in rural and urban areas. But this was derailed. The funding should be used to revive all these proposalsIndia’s health system needs more government funding for health. However, when it comes to local bodies, this has to be a blend of incremental financial allocations supplemented by elected representatives showing health leadership, multiple agencies coordinating with each other, increased citizen engagement in health, the setting up of accountability mechanisms and guiding the process under a multidisciplinary group of technical and health experts. The Fifteenth Finance Commission health grant has the potential to create a health ecosystem which can serve as a much-awaited springboard to mainstream health in the work of rural and urban local bodies. The Indian health-care system cannot afford to and should not miss this opportunity.

Protect, don’t pander: On suppression of free speech

The ‘heckler’s veto’ seems to be winning repeatedly against stand-up comedian Munawar Faruqui. Bengaluru has joined the list of cities in which Mr. Faruqui cannot perform because right-wing Hindutva groups routinely threaten to disrupt his shows, wherever they are scheduled to be held. The Bengaluru city police asked the organisers to put off a show on November 28, alleging that allowing it to go on would create law and order problems and disrupt peace and harmony. Mr. Faruqui was unjustly arrested in Indore in January after a BJP functionary’s son complained that he was about to denigrate Hindu gods in a planned show. He had to spend 37 days in prison before obtaining bail from the Supreme Court for remarks that had not been made in a show that did not take place. It is this case, in which the police arrested even local organisers and those selling tickets for the show and had nothing to do with the content of his performance, that has been cited by the Bengaluru police while voicing fears about the consequences of allowing the show to be held. Earlier, programmes in which he was due to perform in Raipur, Mumbai, Surat, Ahmedabad and Vadodara were called off for the same reason. It is a telling commentary on the state of free speech in the country that anyone can be silenced anywhere by the threats posed by violent and vociferous groups that no regime in the country seems to be able to rein in.

In a despairing reaction, Mr. Faruqui has said, “Goodbye! I’m done”, indicating that he has no further hope that he would be allowed to exercise his constitutional right to express himself. This is reminiscent of Tamil writer Perumal Murugan declaring his own “death” in a literary sense after being silenced by conservative and religious groups. In Mr. Murugan’s case, he was fortunate that the Madras High Court resurrected the author in him with a stirring verdict underscoring the duty of the state to protect free speech and to preserve law and order, instead of placating those who threaten to take the law into their own hands. It is a pity that the police authorities perfunctorily advise authors, speakers and artists to remain silent rather than take proactive steps to protect their fundamental rights. It is true that whenever such issues go before a court of law, the resulting judgments are speech-protective, but the proclivity of the authorities to pander to chauvinist groups is posing a serious threat to free expression in society. The Supreme Court’s observation in S. Rangarajan etc. vs P. Jagjivan Ram (1989) that suppressing free speech in response to a threat of demonstration or protest “would be tantamount to negation of the rule of law and a surrender to blackmail and intimidation” seems to have few takers among those in positions of power.

Afghanistan, the rise of a narco-terrorist state

India’s anxieties over ungoverned spaces and lawless Afghanistan turning into a significant source of internal security threat are gradually turning into reality. According to a report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), opium production in Afghanistan has crossed 6,000 tonnes for the fifth consecutive year. The reported rise in global opium prices has resulted in the exponential production of opiates increasing by 8%. The Taliban, cash-strapped and still looking to establish a semblance of order in the country they captured in August 2021, could indeed be looking to generate revenue from the illegal cash crop, as cases of smuggling and seizures of large consignments of drugs in India have started increasing, indicating a turn towards this trend.

However, in today’s Afghanistan, the Taliban seem to be taking advantage of the vacuum and detached attitude of the international community. This could partly be rooted in the global failure in adopting an appropriate counternarcotic policy to rein in the narco-trade originating from Afghanistan between 2001 and 2020. The rise of a narco-terrorist state will have serious consequences for the U.S., Europe and the region.

The antidote to this phenomenon is a legitimate, responsible, empowered, and inclusive government in Kabul. Economic collapse of the Afghan state and the evolving humanitarian crisis must be prevented. Reaching out to the Afghans and amplifying their voices in having a government that is legitimate and acceptable to them would be a first step in the right direction. While the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan (November 10, 2021) did try to reach out to the regional countries, India should look for new alliances in Central, West, and South Asia to stitch a coalition of the willing. It is time for New Delhi to step up and reach out to the larger sections of Afghan society including women and civil society groups, political leaders and business groups, who are looking for assistance in having a legitimate, representative and inclusive leadership in their country. A failed state in the neighbourhood combined with narco-terrorism cannot be ignored and will have serious consequences for India’s security in the days to come.

India’s informal economy has not shrunk

According to a recent State Bank of India (SBI) Research report, the informal economy in India has been shrinking since 2018. Formalisation, the report says, has taken place through the gross value-added (GVA) route, consumption through increased digital payments, and the employment route. Let’s examine each of these.

The report claims that the share of the informal sector is just 15-20% in 2021 compared to 52.4% in 2018. If that was the case, India would have become a ‘miracle’ economy overnight, since no upper-middle-income economy in Latin America or the ASEAN or any low-middle-income country has achieved this kind of transformation. On the other hand, since the COVID-19 outbreak, informality of enterprises and workers has increased in all such economies.There is an internationally recognised definition of informality of enterprises and workers. In the 15th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (1993) of the International Labour Organization, household enterprises not constituted as separate legal entities independently of the households or household members that own them, and for which no complete accounts are available, are categorised as informal enterprises. In the 17th Conference (2003), informal workers were defined as those without social security. Based on these definitions, internationally, comparable estimates of both types of informality are available. India’s levels are 80% and 91%, respectively. The latter is higher because there are also informal workers within formal enterprises.

Misleading claim

The SBI study adopts multiple definitions of formality (digitisation, registration in GST, cashless payments), which are not used by anyone. These could be possible instruments of encouraging formality, but cannot separately or even together be equated with formality. The SBI study confuses the shrinking of the informal sector’s share of the GDP due to demonetisation and COVID-19’s impact on the economy with formalisation. The informal sector was adversely impacted by the lockdowns and the consequent economic contraction. The sectors that were most impacted by the lockdowns were those with higher informality. Even formal sector activities which are considered informal (outsourcing and contractual activities) were curtailed heavily during the lockdowns. The decline in informal activities might be the cause of the fall in share of the informal sector of the GVA. To term this as formalisation is misleading at best and cruel at worst.

Another reason that the SBI claims that informality declined is the number of workers registered in the new e-Shram portal. Since the portal’s launch, over 9.9 crore unorganised workers have registered themselves. However, registration means documentation, not formalisation, of workers. Workers who are ‘formal’ receive social security benefits. Giving such benefits is not the objective of the portal; the objective is to develop a national database of unorganised workers. After registration on the portal, the workers receive a card with a 12-digit unique number, which is good. The government has announced linking accident insurance with e-Shram registration.

At present, there is no credible database for India’s unorganised workers. In 2020, government pleaded helplessness in providing numbers pertaining to the number of migrant workers who had suffered or died during the lockdowns. These migrant workers were and are part of the broad unorganised sector.

Mere registration under this portal does not guarantee access to institutional social security benefits or coverage under labour laws. Benefits such as Provident Fund, gratuity and maternity benefits will remain outside the reach of unorganised workers as conceptualised in the Social Security Code of 2020. All these instruments were and are available only to establishments with 10 or 20 or more workers. Also, the SBI study notes that West Bengal tops the list in registration. This is no surprise. Over 1.3 crore unorganised workers are already registered under various social security schemes in West Bengal. A share of them is now registering themselves on the new portal.

Further, the formal sector has been treated as a homogenous entity in the study. In reality, there are various layers within the formal sector. Not all workers engaged in the formal sector are ‘formal’. There has been large-scale informalisation of the formal sector over the last three decades through contractualisation and outsourcing of labour. Among wage workers, the proportion of non-permanent, casual and contract workers increased in the organised sector from 1999-00 to 2011-12. It marginally decreased after that but the pandemic once again changed the numbers. Thus, a significant portion of the output attributed to the formal sector is actually produced by an informal workforce within the formal sector.

A blurred distinction

The systematic dismantling of employer-employee relations in the labour market blurs the distinction between formal and informal. The entire edifice of the formal sector is based on informal workers. There are layers of intermediaries between the employers and the workers to create a disconnect between them. Such a disconnect is deliberate rather than organic. For example, the majority of the output in construction is attributed to the formal sector. But most workers in the construction sector are informal. They don’t have access to social security benefits or protective labour laws. They remain informal throughout their lives even though their contribution is attributed to the formal sector. Thus, contrary to what has been asserted in the research, the formal sector’s contribution has been overestimated and the informal sector’s contribution has been underestimated.

Eighty-four per cent of Indian non-farm establishments are informal by their own account. Some might get registered under miscellaneous laws but that does not imply that they have become formal. Registration under the Factories Act or Employees’ Provident Fund or State insurance means that these organisations are formal as the organisation needs 10 or 20 employees to be registered under these laws. But mere registration under other acts like local municipal acts or tax laws does not indicate formalisation.

Thus, the SBI’s claim that significant formalisation has occurred in India is unfounded.

Basil Rajapaksa in Delhi, to meet PM Modi

He is likely to seek crucial economic assistance by way of investments and enhanced tourist exchanges, say official sources in Colombo

Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, who arrived in New Delhi on Tuesday, is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior ministers over the next two days. He is likely to seek crucial economic assistance from India by way of investments and enhanced tourist exchanges, official sources in Colombo indicated.

This is his first official visit abroad since his brother President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, appointed him Finance Minister in July last amid what the government termed an “unprecedented” economic crisis – with draining foreign reserves, falling rupee (200 to a US dollar), soaring living costs, and growing fear of a food shortage next year. Mr. Basil recently presented his first Budget in Parliament. It is expected to be passed next week, with the government’s two-thirds majority in the House.

Since the pandemic struck, the Sri Lankan leadership has made at least two requests for economic assistance – a debt freeze that Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa requested in February 2020, and a $ 1.1 billion currency swap that President Gotabaya sought in May 2020 – but New Delhi is yet to respond to either, amid considerable strain after Sri Lanka unilaterally cancelled a tripartite agreement earlier this year with India and Japan to jointly develop a Colombo Port terminal. Colombo instead offered a “compromise” project at a neighbouring terminal, and India agreed to rope in the Adani Group as the main private investor.

High-profile visits

Meanwhile, high-profile visits have continued. Early October, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited Sri Lanka and sought an early completion of the India-backed projects, and enhanced connectivity between the countries. Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani visited Sri Lanka later in October and held talks with the leadership on the West Container Terminal project at the Colombo Port, as well as potential investments in the energy sector.While it was rumoured for some time that Mr. Basil, the youngest of the Rajapaksa brothers at Sri Lanka’s helm, would visit India before the end of the year, both sides kept the dates of his visit under wraps. The visiting Minister is also expected to meet External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman, among others, in New Delhi.Mr. Basil, the chief architect of the Rajapaksas’ political comeback in 2019 and 2020, has been a key interlocutor in Sri Lanka’s ties with India. He was a part of a “troika” along with Mr. Gotabaya and bureaucrat Lalith Weeratunga during the final years of the civil war, and participated in frequent discussions with New Delhi.

Sri Lanka on Tuesday also sought enhanced strategic ties with India. Its High Commissioner to India Milinda Moragoda met Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi and “explored avenues of further augmenting defence and security cooperation with India”, a press release said.

New cryptocurrency bill will be introduced soon: Government

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the Government is working on a new Bill on cryptocurrency which will take into account the rapidly changing dimensions in virtual currency space. It will be presented to the Cabinet soon and brought in Parliament during the ongoing session.The Enforcement Directorate is probing eight cases of cryptocurrency-related fraud, she said, before stressing that sharing more information may not be in the“larger public interest”. The Minister was answering questions posed by several MPs during the Question Hour in the Rajya Sabha. BJP MP Swapan Dasgupta asked whether an outright ban of the currency is desirable.The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021 is included in the tentative legislative business for the winter session. The description of the Bill, which said private cryptocurrency will be banned, created a huge furore and caused the crash of the crypto market in India. The listing was based on the old Bill.“Yes, last time [monsoon session] there was a Bill but subsequently because there were other dimensions…That Bill has been reworked. And in a way the Bill which is coming now is a new Bill. But, never mind, the work done on that Bill has all been taken on board here.”She refused to divulge the contours of the new Bill. “The issues pertaining to regulatory capacities and also the fact that it has proliferated in the last two-three years, are well taken note of,” she said.Asked if the Government proposes to ban misleading advertisements in media, she said the guidelines of the Advertising Standards Council of India are being studied which are also being looked into “so that we can take, if necessary, some kind of a position or a decision to see how we are going to handle it”.Ms. Sitharaman said the Government, the RBI and the Securities Exchange Board of India have been cautioning people about the cryptocurrencies that could be a “high risk” area and “more can be done” to create awareness. She reiterated that cryptocurrencies are unregulated in India and the Government does not collect data on these transactions.To queries from MP Sushil Kumar Modi, Ms. Sitharaman said non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are also unregulated and clarified that no separate tax rate governs the income earned by crypto-exchanges and other crypt-service providing platforms.Their income, she said, is liable for tax under the head Business or Profession under Chapter IV of the Income Tax Act of 1961. total income, for taxation purposes, shall include all income from any source derived.

Amid din in Lok Sabha, Rijiju introduces Judges Bill

Amid sloganeering by a section of Opposition members, Lok Sabha on Tuesday was adjourned for the day soon after Law Minister Kiren Rijiju introduced a bill that deals with the salaries and service condition of High Court and Supreme Court judges.

Soon after newly elected Shiv Sena member from Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Kalaben Mohanbhai Delkar, took oath and the Question Hour got underway, members of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), that usually support the Narendra Modi government on most issues, trooped into the Well to raise issues of farmers.

From demanding a law on Minimum Support Price (MSP) to demanding compensation for the families of those who died during the farmers’ protests, asking for a statement from the Centre on why it has not procured paddy in Telangana, TRS MPs raised a host of issues.

Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla urged the members to go back to their seats and send out the right message by allowing Question Hour to function.

While other Opposition members including those from the Congress stayed away from the Well, they also sought to raise some issues. When the Speaker didn’t allow them to disturb the Question Hour, members of the Congress, NCP, Left parties and DMK walked out of the House, alleging that the government was suppressing the voice of the Opposition.

However, Trinamool Congress members neither joined the protests nor walked out.

When the TRS continued with sloganeering and showed placards, Mr. Birla adjourned the House until 2 p.m. As the House reconvened, DMK member A Raja, who was in the Chair, adjourned the House for an hour.

During the break, Mr Birla convened a meeting of floor leaders of all the parties to break the deadlock. However, though TRS leader Nama Nageswara Rao had assured the Speaker that they would cooperate, when the House resumed, TRS MPs once again resorted to slogan shouting.

In the din, Mr Rijiju introduced The High Court and Supreme Court Judges (Salaries and Conditions of Service) Amendment Bill 2021 that clarifies on when Supreme Court and High Court judges are entitled to an additional quantum of pension or family pension on attaining a certain age.

“We are here to support the government. We don’t come here for a picnic… we come here to raise issues of the public. We wanted a discussion on farm laws but the government did not allow discussion. So the fault lies with the government. It is the duty of the government to ensure the smooth functioning of the House,” Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said.

6 lakh Indians renounced citizenship

More than six lakh Indians renounced citizenship in the past five years, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) informed the Lok Sabha on Tuesday. This year, till September 30, 1,11,287 Indians gave up their citizenship.The reason for a large number of Indians surrendering their citizenship was not stated in the reply. Though, in 2018, the MHA revised Form XXII under Citizenship Rules for declaration of renunciation of citizenship, which, for the first time, included a column on “circumstances/reasons due to which applicant intends to acquire foreign citizenship and renounce Indian citizenship”. Recently, the MHA had simplified the process and provisions were made for the applicants to upload documents online and an upper limit of 60 days was fixed for the renunciation process to be completed.

Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, in a written reply, said that in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, the number of Indians who gave up citizenship stood at 1,33,049, 1,34,561, 1,44,017 and 85,248, respectively.According to a Global Wealth Migration Review report, in 2019, India came second only to China when it came to high net worth individuals (HNIs) leaving the country. As many as 7,000 HNIs left India in 2019.

In October, Amit Mitra, former Finance Minister of West Bengal, quoting a Morgan Stanley report, tweeted that “35,000 Indian Entrepreneurs of High Net Worth LEFT India between 2014-2020, as NRI/Immigrants. India RANKED No 1 IN EXODUS IN THE WORLD”.

Mr. Rai added that in the period 2016-20, 10,645 foreigners applied for Indian citizenship, of which more than 7,782 were from Pakistan and 452 were stateless. During the same period, 4,177 persons were granted Indian citizenship but the country-wise breakup was not provided. A total number of 1,33,83,718 Indian nationals were living in foreign countries, the reply stated.The Minister said the persons covered under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) might apply after the rules were notified.“Till now, the Government has not taken any decision to prepare the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC) at the national level,” the reply said.

Unemployment rate inches up to 9.3 per cent in January-March quarter: NSO data

The urban unemployment rate has increased to 9.3% in the January-March 2021 period from 9.1% in the year-ago period, according to a periodic labour force survey by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

While 9.3% is lower than the peak urban unemployment level of 20.8% recorded in the April-June quarter of last year, it is still at higher than pre-Covid levels.

The figures, released on Tuesday, also showed that unemployment among women is rising as 11.3% of women in the labour force found themselves without a job in the January-March 2021 quarter compared to 10.6% in the year-ago period. Unemployment among males remained at the same level as last year, at 8.6%.

Labour force participation rate (percentage of persons in labour force in the population) in urban areas came down to 47.5% in the January-March quarter of 2021, compared to 48.1% in the same period a year ago.

Women’s participation in the labour force at 21.2% in the January-March quarter was lower than 21.9% in the same quarter previous year though it was better than 20.6% in the October-December 2020 quarter.

The working population ratio, defined as the percentage of employed persons in the population, stood at 43.1% in January-March 2021, down from 43.7% a year ago.

CMIE data

According to the monthly unemployment data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), joblessness in the country stood at 7.13% as on November 29.

New India can’t be nutrition deficient

Over 67% of children below five years in India are anaemic. That translates to about seven in every 10 children suffering from iron deficiency. The outcome of the phase-2 of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) reveals the dangerous demographic pattern for a country that wants to be a global economic superpower. Let’s take a look at the pregnant women in the 15–49 age category and the number stands at 52.2%. For non-pregnant women, the number is higher at 57.2%. Talking in terms of the economic burden of anaemia, the loss it inflicts is probably as much as the health budget of the country.

Back in the 1970s, India had launched the National Nutritional Anaemia Prophylaxis Programme (NNAPP) to fight the deficiency. In 2019, it rolled out the Anaemia Mukt Bharat campaign. Two years hence and after Covid-19, the numbers have not just ballooned but are even scary in some states. Assam’s anaemia scenario for children in the 6–59 month bracket stands at a whopping 68.4% in NFHS-5, up by 32% since NFHS-4. Chhattisgarh’s numbers have jumped to 67.2%, an increase of 25.6%. In Odisha, where malnutrition has remained acute, the anaemia figures are equally worrying—from 44.6% in 2015–16, it has grown to 64.2%. Anaemia is a major contributor to disability among children as well as the cause of mortality among newborns and mothers. Further the NFHS-5 shows stunting, wasting and under-weight parameters have not shown much improvement over the last survey.programmes too. It is important to find out whether the pandemic has snapped nutrition access to children and women who are largely dependent on supplementary nutrition schemes and rework the planning. The dream of a New India cannot be built on a large population of children and mothers deprived of nutritional sufficiency.

The way towards net-zero emissions

COP26 concluded in the second week of November on a high note to drive global climate actions and 195 countries set a target to keep average global temperature change below 2°C and as close as possible to 1.5°C. Before the summit, the planet was on course for a dangerous 2.7°C of global warming. Based on new announcements made during the summit, experts estimate we are now on a path to between 1.8°C and 2.4°C of warming.

Important headway was made in many areas and a few examples of the outcomes of the conference are: The Adaptation Fund reached $356 million, which is almost three times its mobilisation target for 2022; the LDCF, which supports climate change adaptation in the world’s least developed countries, also received a record $413 million in new contributions; with respect to International Carbon Markets, after five years of negotiations, the world’s governments settled on the rules for the global carbon market under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6; countries were encouraged to align the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets’ dates around five-year cycles, which will hopefully help spur ambition and action in the near term, facilitate better understanding of global progress, ensure action over the same time period and keep pace with the Paris Agreement’s five-year cycle.

At COP26, India modified its NDCs for 2030 and Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed that the country will achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. This was one of the five major commitments or panchamrit he made on behalf of India to mitigate climate change. We welcome this and are extremely happy that a date for net-zero has been set. Worth noting are the powerful and ambitious targets for the near term (by 2030) that were adopted—India will bring its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW, carbon intensity down to 45%, fulfil 50% of its energy requirement through renewable energy and reduce 1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions from the total projected emissions. With successful implementation of many initiatives already underway in India, the fourth largest renewable energy hub is well on track to achieve the aspirational targets.

The message from the PM is clear—that the goals of climate action demand universal strategies from all nations and India’s growth path must increasingly include sustainability as a concomitant objective. In this context, Indian industry is making significant progress in the climate mitigation mission and views the PM’s commitment as an opportunity to inculcate sustainability actions across its operations, goods and services. Sixty one Indian businesses have made commitments towards net-zero carbon and are developing strategies to reach this goal. These include businesses from across sectors. A number of Indian companies in partnership with CII have also committed to achieving no net loss on biodiversity, addressing air pollution and working towards a circular economy, with some even committing to removal of commodity-driven deforestation in supply chains.

Under the PM’s visionary strategies for renewable energy, hydrogen mission, reduction of carbon emissions, etc., India has attained great results in solar and wind energy, railways (committed to net zero by 2030) and LED lights among others.

On a positive note, India has taken the lead and is at the forefront of action against climate change. In fact, it has retained its spot in the top 10 best performing countries for the third year in a row in the Global Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), released by Germanwatch on the sidelines of COP26. With India on the road to meeting its NDCs, the stretch targets set by the PM can be achieved if we all pull together as one.

Achieving net zero involves technology pathways as well as financial flows of investments towards the construction of the associated physical infrastructure. Based on the primary analysis to meet net zero by 2070, India will require a cumulative investment of $10.1 trillion in power sector transformation in scaling up generation from renewable energy, associated integration distribution, transmission infrastructure and setting up green hydrogen production. Finance was extensively discussed throughout at COP26 and there was consensus on the need to continue increasing support to developing countries.
COP26 fell short on the expectations with respect to technology transfer and finance. The pledge to mobilise $100 billion a year has not been realised, which means climate action will be delayed further till 2025.

While Indian industry is making rapid progress in the arena of climate mitigation, we look forward to a partnership with the government in terms of mechanisms to reward or incentivise early action. This will help motivate companies/organisations to accelerate efforts on climate actions as well as bring more into the fray. The converse would be to impose some kind of penalties on inaction, which would be a definite deterrent. This would emphasise the government’s intent on achieving the commitments made at COP26 and accord seriousness to the magnitude of the current situation. Government cooperation is also sought in identifying modalities for establishing carbon markets, enabling climate finance and support in adopting new technologies. For India to deploy climate technologies at a significant scale, there is a need to put in place a facilitative global technology transfer regime and ensure that incremental and associated costs of these techs are met from multilateral climate change funds.

In the upcoming budget, we look forward to high-level announcements and commitments to be made with regards to energy transition, transport and adaptation measures just like in the last budget where the finance minister had announced the Green Hydrogen mission.

The News Editorial Analysis 30th November 2021